Don’t get me wrong. I didn’t say: “Replace the Flash compiler option.” – This is important since there are still some things HTML5 can’t handle, like webcam support for example.
=> No Flash, no ChatRoulette.
So, til HTML5 is ready to completely replace Flash, both compiler options must be offered.
Also, the whole Illustrator-Catalyst-FlashBuilder workflow should be kept and optimized for HTML5. Although Catalyst is still in its baby-shoes and has some serious mis-concepts, the basic idea is great. Adobe should keep working on this.
Further, AIR shouldn’t be canceled if Flash gets (ever) dropped. Instead, AIR could be a great way to bring Ajax-based rich internet applications to the desktop (and mobiles).
The benefit is clearly visible: Flash-developers can keep using their knowledge about AS3, MXML and Adobe’s software products, but simply target a Flash-free platform.
In the same time, all this Flash-sucks-no!-Flash-is-great-blahblah would finally come to an end.
Update: Seems like, Adobe heard me :-)